{"id":1829,"date":"2025-05-17T18:18:57","date_gmt":"2025-05-17T18:18:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?p=1829"},"modified":"2025-09-06T18:25:29","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T18:25:29","slug":"kelly-criterion-strategiyasi-nec%c9%99-isl%c9%99yir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?p=1829","title":{"rendered":"Kelly Criterion strategiyas\u0131 nec\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259yir?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Kelly Criterion<\/strong> &ndash; m&#601;rc v&#601; ya investisiya &uuml;&ccedil;&uuml;n risk idar&#601;etm&#601; metodudur. M&#601;qs&#601;d: <strong>uzun m&uuml;dd&#601;tli m&#601;nf&#601;&#601;ti maksimum etm&#601;k<\/strong> v&#601; eyni zamanda kapitalla itki riskini minimuma endirm&#601;k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#399;sas prinsip: <strong>m&#601;rcin &ouml;l&ccedil;&uuml;s&uuml;n&uuml; ehtimal v&#601; &#601;msal &#601;sas&#305;nda hesablay&#305;rsan.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Kelly Formula<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"internal-linking-related-contents\"><a href=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?p=1887\" class=\"template-2\"><span class=\"cta\">&#399;trafl&#305; oxu<\/span><span class=\"postTitle\">Dutching strategiyas&#305; nec&#601; i&#351;l&#601;yir?<\/span><\/a><\/div><p>&#399;g&#601;r oyun &uuml;&ccedil;&uuml;n:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>b<\/strong> = qazan&#305;lan m&#601;bl&#601;&#287;in &#601;msal&#305; (profit odds, m&#601;s&#601;l&#601;n, &#601;msal 3.0 &rarr; b = 2)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>p<\/strong> = qalib g&#601;lm&#601; ehtimal&#305;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>q<\/strong> = uduzma ehtimal&#305; (q = 1 &ndash; p)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>O zaman m&#601;rc m&#601;bl&#601;&#287;i f&lowast;f^*f&lowast; kapital&#305;n faizind&#601;: f&lowast;=bp&minus;qbf^* = \\frac{bp &ndash; q}{b}f&lowast;=bbp&minus;q&#8203;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu, uzunm&uuml;dd&#601;tli optimal m&#601;rc faizini g&ouml;st&#601;rir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>N&uuml;mun&#601;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tutaq ki, futbol oyununda:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Komanda A qalib g&#601;lm&#601; ehtimal&#305;: <strong>p = 0.60<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#399;msal: <strong>3.0<\/strong> (y&#601;ni, b = 2)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>f&lowast;=2&sdot;0.6&minus;0.42=1.2&minus;0.42=0.82=0.4f^* = \\frac{2 \\cdot 0.6 &ndash; 0.4}{2} = \\frac{1.2 &ndash; 0.4}{2} = \\frac{0.8}{2} = 0.4f&lowast;=22&sdot;0.6&minus;0.4&#8203;=21.2&minus;0.4&#8203;=20.8&#8203;=0.4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>N&#601;tic&#601;: Kapital&#305;n 40%-i m&#601;rc edilm&#601;lidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Fractional Kelly v&#601; Modified Kelly<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Fractional Kelly<\/strong> &ndash; Riskl&#601;ri azaltmaq &uuml;&ccedil;&uuml;n Kelly m&#601;bl&#601;&#287;inin bir hiss&#601;sini qoyursan, m&#601;s&#601;l&#601;n, <strong>yar&#305;s&#305;n&#305; (50%) v&#601; ya 25%-ini<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Misal: yuxar&#305; n&uuml;mun&#601;d&#601; 40% kapital optimald&#305;r &rarr; <strong>Fractional Kelly 50% &rarr; 20% kapital<\/strong> qoyulur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Modified Kelly<\/strong> &ndash; B&#601;z&#601;n ehtimallar v&#601; &#601;msallar d&#601;qiq olmad&#305;&#287;&#305;ndan Kelly-ni <strong>m&uuml;&#601;yy&#601;n risk parametrin&#601; g&ouml;r&#601; d&#601;yi&#351;dirirl&#601;r<\/strong>. M&#601;s&#601;l&#601;n, uduzma ehtimal&#305;n&#305; art&#305;rmaq v&#601; ya &#601;msal&#305; n&#601;z&#601;r&#601; alaraq m&#601;bl&#601;&#287;i t&#601;nziml&#601;m&#601;k.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Fractional v&#601; Modified Kelly daha <strong>psixoloji rahatl&#305;q v&#601; riskin azald&#305;lmas&#305;<\/strong> &uuml;&ccedil;&uuml;n istifad&#601; olunur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Praktiki t&#601;tbiq sah&#601;l&#601;ri<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Futbol v&#601; basketbol m&#601;rc oyunlar&#305;<\/strong> &ndash; &#399;msal v&#601; qalibiyy&#601;t ehtimal&#305;n&#305; analiz ed&#601;r&#601;k optimal m&#601;bl&#601;&#287; qoymaq.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>At yar&#305;&#351;lar&#305;<\/strong> &ndash; Bir ne&ccedil;&#601; favoriti qiym&#601;tl&#601;ndir&#601;r&#601;k optimal kapital paylamaq.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Maliyy&#601; bazarlar&#305;<\/strong> &ndash; H&#601;r bir investisiyan&#305;n risk v&#601; g&ouml;zl&#601;nil&#601;n g&#601;lirini balansla&#351;d&#305;rmaq &uuml;&ccedil;&uuml;n.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<table border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"8\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr>\n      <th>Strategiya<\/th>\n      <th>Formula \/ &#304;zah<\/th>\n      <th>N&uuml;mun&#601;<\/th>\n      <th>Optimal Kapital Pay&#305;<\/th>\n    <\/tr>\n  <\/thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>Kelly Criterion<\/td>\n      <td>f* = (b * p &ndash; q) \/ b <br> b = &#601;msal &ndash; 1, p = qalibiyy&#601;t ehtimal&#305;, q = uduzma ehtimal&#305;<\/td>\n      <td>&#399;msal: 3.0 (b=2), p=0.6 &rarr; f* = (2*0.6 &ndash; 0.4)\/2 = 0.4<\/td>\n      <td>40% kapital<\/td>\n    <\/tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>Fractional Kelly<\/td>\n      <td>Kelly m&#601;bl&#601;&#287;inin bir hiss&#601;si, m&#601;s&#601;l&#601;n 50% v&#601; ya 25% qoyulur<\/td>\n      <td>Yuxar&#305; n&uuml;mun&#601;d&#601; 50% Fractional Kelly &rarr; 40% * 0.5 = 20% kapital<\/td>\n      <td>20% kapital<\/td>\n    <\/tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>Modified Kelly<\/td>\n      <td>Kelly m&#601;bl&#601;&#287;i risk v&#601; bazar d&#601;yi&#351;k&#601;nliyin&#601; g&ouml;r&#601; t&#601;nziml&#601;nir, ehtimallar v&#601; &#601;msal n&#601;z&#601;r&#601; al&#305;n&#305;r<\/td>\n      <td>&#399;msal 3.0, ehtimal p=0.55, uduzma riskini azaltmaq &uuml;&ccedil;&uuml;n f* = 0.3<\/td>\n      <td>30% kapital<\/td>\n    <\/tr>\n  <\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<p>C&#601;dv&#601;ld&#601;n d&#601; g&ouml;r&uuml;nd&uuml;y&uuml; kimi, Kelly Criterion uzunm&uuml;dd&#601;tli qazanc &uuml;&ccedil;&uuml;n &#601;n optimal strategiyad&#305;r, amma q&#305;sa m&uuml;dd&#601;td&#601; d&#601;yi&#351;k&#601;nlik v&#601; psixoloji stres yarada bil&#601;r. Fractional v&#601; Modified Kelly is&#601; riskl&#601;ri idar&#601; etm&#601;y&#601; v&#601; uduzma ehtimal&#305;n&#305; azaltma&#287;a k&ouml;m&#601;k edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"ays-arp-under-posts-container ays-arp-grid-layout \" id=\"ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9\" data-id=\"6a06e8fd539f9\" data-ratio=\"1\"><h2 class=\"ays-arp-under-posts-container-title\">Bunlar da maraql&#305;d&#305;r<\/h2><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"ays-arp-id-6a06e8fd539f9\" value=\"1829\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-posts\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-header\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-img-row\"><a href=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?p=2031\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-link\"><img src=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/6567890-768x502.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-img\"><img src=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/6567890-768x502.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-img ays-arp-under-post-img-mobile\"><\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-content\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-title-row\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?p=2031\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-link\">Futbol&ccedil;ular erk&#601;n qol buraxandan sonra niy&#601; ruhdan...<\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-excerpt-row\"><span class=\"ays-arp-under-post-excerpt\">\nErk&#601;n qol komandan&#305;n psixoloji tarazl&#305;&#287;&#305;n&#305; pozur. Futbol&ccedil;ular oyuna uy&#287;unla&#351;madan hesabda...<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-footer\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-header\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-img-row\"><a href=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?p=2102\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-link\"><img src=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_756-768x509.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-img\"><img src=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_756-768x509.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-img ays-arp-under-post-img-mobile\"><\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-content\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-title-row\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?p=2102\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-link\">Sevgilin &ldquo;m&#601;nim &uuml;st&uuml;m&#601; g&#601;lm&#601;&rdquo; deyirs&#601;, &#601;slind&#601; n&#601;yi...<\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-excerpt-row\"><span class=\"ays-arp-under-post-excerpt\">\n&ldquo;M&#601;nim &uuml;st&uuml;m&#601; g&#601;lm&#601;&rdquo; c&uuml;ml&#601;si &ccedil;ox vaxt sad&#601; m&uuml;dafi&#601; kimi s&#601;sl&#601;nir....<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-footer\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-header\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-img-row\"><a href=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?p=1758\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-link\"><img src=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_6645.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-img\"><img src=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_6645.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-img ays-arp-under-post-img-mobile\"><\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-content\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-title-row\"><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?p=1758\" class=\"ays-arp-under-post-link\">Futbol fanlar&#305; &ndash; azarke&#351;l&#601;r&#601; x&#601;st&#601; dem&#601;k olarm&#305;?<\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-excerpt-row\"><span class=\"ays-arp-under-post-excerpt\">\nFutbol d&uuml;nyan&#305;n &#601;n populyar idman n&ouml;v&uuml;d&uuml;r. On milyonlarla insan sevdiyi...<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ays-arp-under-post-footer\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><style type=\"text\/css\">\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 {\n                width: 100%;\n                word-break: break-word;\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-post {\n                width: calc(33% - 10px);\n                overflow: hidden;\n                padding: 10px;\n                border: none;\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-post-img-row .ays-arp-under-post-img {\n\t\t\t    object-fit: contain;\n\t\t\t    object-position:center center;\n                border: unset;\n                padding: unset;\n                border-radius: 0px;\n                height: 100%\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-posts-container-title,\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-post-title  .ays-arp-under-post-link,\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-post-excerpt-row {\n                color: #333333;\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9  .ays-arp-under-posts  .ays-arp-under-post {\n                background-color: rgba(255,255,255,0);\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9  .ays-arp-under-posts  .ays-arp-under-post:hover {\n                background-color: rgba(255,255,255,0);\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-post-title,\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-post-link {\n                line-height: 1.5;\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-post-title a{\n                font-size: 16px;\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-post-date-author-row {\n                color: rgba(51,51,51,0.7);\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-posts a:active,\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-posts a:hover,\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-posts a:focus,\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-posts a {\n                text-decoration: unset;\n                cursor: pointer;\n                outline: unset;\n                text-decoration-skip-ink: none;\n                background: unset;\n                opacity: 1;\n            }\n\n            #ays-arp-under-posts-container-1829-6a06e8fd539f9 .ays-arp-under-post-img-row .ays-arp-under-post-img.ays-arp-under-post-img-mobile {\n                display: none; 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m&#601;rc v&#601; ya investisiya &uuml;&ccedil;&uuml;n risk idar&#601;etm&#601; metodudur. M&#601;qs&#601;d: uzun m&uuml;dd&#601;tli m&#601;nf&#601;&#601;ti<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1830,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-strategiyalar"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345.png",783,508,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345-300x195.png",300,195,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345-768x498.png",640,415,true],"large":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345.png",640,415,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345.png",783,508,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345.png",783,508,false],"chromenews-featured":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345.png",783,508,false],"chromenews-large":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345.png",783,508,false],"chromenews-medium":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345-590x410.png",590,410,true],"yarpp-thumbnail":["https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/azbetsport_5454345-120x120.png",120,120,true]},"author_info":{"info":["mammedli.nurlan@gmail.com"]},"category_info":"<a href=\"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/?cat=12\" rel=\"category\">Strategiyalar<\/a>","tag_info":"Strategiyalar","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1829","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1829"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1829\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1831,"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1829\/revisions\/1831"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1829"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1829"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azbetsport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1829"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}